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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 28th, 2021–Nov 29th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

If persistently high freezing levels prevent a crust from forming, potential for wet loose avalanches in steep terrain will persist too. Reactive new wind slabs should be expected in any alpine areas that saw dry snow accumulate at the end of the storm.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

Sunday night: Rain easing with a final 2-5mm accumulation. Moderate southwest winds easing by morning.

Monday: Mainly cloudy. Light to moderate southwest winds, potentially strong by afternoon. Treeline high temperatures around 0 to +1.

Freezing levels steady around 1700 m.

Tuesday: Moderate snowfall switching to heavy rain by about noon. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +5 with freezing levels reaching 3000 metres.

Wednesday: Heavy rain switching to light snowfall late in the afternoon. Strong southwest winds. Treeline temperatures dropping from about +5 to +1 over the day as freezing levels return to about 1600 metres.

Avalanche Summary

We haven't yet received any conditions reports in the region. If you go out in the mountains, please post your observations and/or photos to the Mountain Information Network!

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain has affected the snowpack at all elevations. With a bit of cooling over Sunday night we should see surface crust beginning to form and eliminate chances of wet loose avalanche activity. In areas where crust may fail to form (think lower elevations), this potential could linger.

Early indications of our region's existing snowpack suggest alpine snowpack depths around 150 cm, depth tapering dramatically with elevation to about 30-60 cm at treeline. Snow cover is thin and generally below threshold for avalanches below about 1300 metres. 

Terrain and Travel

  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Winter conditions may exist in gullies, alpine bowls, and around ridgelines.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.