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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 7th, 2022–Apr 8th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Continually assess the snow surface and watch for natural avalanche activity as you move through terrain. There is uncertainty in how the snowpack will respond to the rapidly changing freezing levels.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

Thursday night: No new snow expected. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Possibility of temperature inversion with above freezing layer in the alpine.

Friday: Stormy with 5 to 10 cm of snow in the afternoon. Strong southwest winds and freezing levels falling to 2100 m.

Saturday: Stormy with up to 15 cm of new snow expected. Moderate southwest winds and freezing levels around 1500 m. 

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow. Light westerly winds and freezing levels around 1300 m.

Avalanche Summary

Over the past few days ski cutting and explosive control produced storm slab avalanches up to size 1.5 in the alpine and treeline. Several size 1.5 natural storm slab and dry loose avalanches were also observed.

We suspect that wet slab and wet loose avalanches could occur on all aspects and elevations with continued high freezing levels on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Moist snow will be observed on all aspects and elevations. As the freezing level falls in the evening a new crust will form.

 Multiple crust exist in the upper snowpack. The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.

Problems

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.