Avalanche forecast

South Columbia

Jan 31 – Feb 1, 2016Avalanche Canada
View on map
Archived · expired 11 years ago

Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map

Highlights

Recently formed wind slabs and touchy persistent weak layers are making for tricky conditions. Conservative terrain selection remains important.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Recently formed wind slabs are lurking below ridge crests and behind cross-loaded terrain features and are expected to remain sensitive to human triggers.  Weaknesses may also exist within or below the recent storm snow.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    3–5
    The likelihood of triggering the buried weak layer is slowly dropping but if triggered, this layer can still produce large, destructive avalanches. A cornice failure or a small avalanche in motion has the potential step-down to a deeper weak layer.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations on Sunday

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure off the coast will slowly move eastward on Monday and should be established over the interior by Tuesday. Mostly cloudy conditions are expected for Monday with sunny breaks and light scattered flurries both possible. Alpine winds are expected to be light from the northwest in the morning but may become moderate in the afternoon. Freezing levels are expected to be below valley bottom during the over periods and stay below 1000m in the afternoons. A mix of sun and cloud is expected for Tuesday with light to moderate northwest winds in the alpine. Increasing cloudiness is expected for Wednesday in advance of a weak storm system that is currently forecast to arrive on Wednesday night.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, no natural avalanches were observed but several size 1 skier and explosive triggered avalanche were reported. Most of the skier triggered avalanches were 15-25cm thick wind slabs on north and east aspects at 2100-2300m. Explosives triggered several loose dry avalanches on northwest aspects in the alpine. On Friday, widespread natural avalanche activity up to size 3 was reported in throughout the region. This includes both storm slabs releasing down 30-60cm and persistent slabs failing down 70-100cm on the early January surface hoar layer. The storm slabs were failing on all aspects from 2000 to 2500m while the persistent slabs were failing on a variety of aspects around 1500-1900m. One persistent slab was also reported from 2300m on a southwest aspect. A skier accidently triggered a size 2 persistent slab avalanche on an east aspect at 1600m on the early January surface hoar layer down 70-80cm. Recently formed wind slabs and a reactive persistent slab are both expected to remain sensitive to human-triggering on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm loading brings storm slab thickness to 20-40cm and up to 50cm in wind loaded areas. The recently destructive persistent weak layer from early January is now typically down 70-110cm in most places and has recently produced some large, destructive avalanches in the region. The layer is slowly getting harder to human trigger but is still quite reactive in snowpack tests and has the potential for wide propagations. In general, the lower snowpack below this layer is well settled and strong.

Regions covered