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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 10th, 2017–Feb 11th, 2017

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Avoid any exposure to avalanche terrain. A SPAW is also in effect. Please read it thoroughly and share among other backcountry users.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Tonight will see the winds continue with flurries bringing another 4cm. Tomorrow we're expecting another unsettled weather day with a little bit of everything The winds will continue to beĀ  40-50km/hr range. The temps will fall overnight. Tomorrow's high will be -14.

Avalanche Summary

-A sz3 was reported on Mt. Warspite. It had a wide propagation and traveled full path. -A sz2.5 was noted on a sub peak of Mt. Chester. West aspect, alpine start zone. It had a very unusual/erratic propagation-The rundle range had a widespread cycle at treeline and below and some alpine activity. Lots of small pockets that pulled out. High consequence avalanches despite being small-Mt Cascade (Cascade Falls & Urs Hole) went sz3

Snowpack Summary

Its hard to paint a widespread picture of the snowpack right now. At treeline, there is 50-60cm of settled storm snow. Generally this new snow is still considered soft (4f), however in more exposed areas it is noticeably denser(1f). This change is from either wind transport, wind pressing or settlement. The real story is what its sitting on. At treeline and below, it is sitting on the facets from earlier this year. During our field trip today (Superslope area) there was widespread whumphing and cracking. In more open, wind exposed terrain, the new snow is sitting on a hard windslab that was buried on Feb 4th. In these areas the snowpack feels better under foot, but under the hardslab is a well developed facet layer that will create large avalanches if it fails. The alpine is currently being hammered by the wind and we are expecting start zones to be filling up with wind blown snow. The forecasting team's gut feeling today is that any open terrain greater than 20 degrees should be avoided.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.