Forecasts are based on very limited observations. Dig down, test weak layers and keep an eye on rising temperatures Monday.
Confidence
Poor - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
High pressure will strengthen though the forecast period. This will slowly bring warmer temperatures to upper elevations and no significant precipitation is expected.Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures -4. Freezing levels 1600 m. Ridgetop winds from the NW. Monday/Tuesday: Cloudy with some sunny periods. Alpine temperatures near 0 degrees. Freezing levels rising to 2500m. Ridgetop winds will be light from the South.
Avalanche Summary
Last weeks storm, triggered a widespread natural avalanche cycle in the alpine. Size 2-3 slab avalanches were reported throughout the region. Recently no new avalanches have been reported. However, isolated large slab avalanches may still be rider triggered, especially on slopes that didn't previously avalanche.
Snowpack Summary
Average snowpack depths at upper elevations sit near a metre or more. Recent storm snow seems to be settling, but wind slab problems likely exist.A surface hoar layer may exist 60-120 cm down but seems to be spotty, and drainage specific. Have you seen any?A bigger concern is a melt-freeze / rain crust that formed early October. This is generally found from 80-180 cm down near the base of the snowpack. On northerly aspects a more predominant crust/ facet combo may exist and allow for wider propagations. especially in places that have smooth ground cover (glacier ice, grassy slopes, rock slabs etc.).Snowpack conditions may change and deteriorate as temperatures rise in the alpine.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.