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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2017–Feb 1st, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

Northeast or east winds will begin to redistribute new snow to lee westerly aspects Wednesday. Shallow new wind slab may become particularly touchy in areas where it bonds poorly to an underlying crust. Wind slab should primarily be found near and above treeline but look for firmer wind transported snow down into the upper portion of the below treeline band. All aspects are listed to cover older wind slab formed over the weekend.  

Detailed Forecast

Northeast or east winds will begin to redistribute new snow to lee westerly aspects Wednesday. Shallow new wind slab may become particularly touchy in areas where it bonds poorly to an underlying crust. Wind slab should primarily be found near and above treeline but look for firmer wind transported snow down into the upper portion of the below treeline band. All aspects are listed to cover older wind slab formed over the weekend. Older wind slab should be stubborn to trigger at this point. 

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

An atmospheric river arrived over the Northwest Tuesday 1/17 with heavy rain seen up to at least 6000 feet in the Hurricane Ridge area. A storm cycle from Thursday 1/19 through Sunday 1/22 deposited about 2 feet of snow at Hurricane Ridge.

A large upper ridge and warm air mass built over the Northwest Thursday to Saturday. Temperatures warmed into the 40s at Hurricane Ridge with south winds in the 20 mph range on Saturday. 

A weak front crossed the PNW Sunday afternoon and night, depositing 1 inch of new snow at Hurricane Ridge through Monday morning after starting as light rain Sunday afternoon. A slight cooling trend under mostly cloudy skies followed on Monday. Tuesday was cool and mostly sunny.  

Recent Observations

A skier was caught and carried by a wind slab avalanche on the back side of Maggies Saturday. A report with a well done video is available on the NWAC Observations page.

Another report received on Saturday from the Obstruction Point road area via the NWAC Observations page indicated windy and warm conditions, with pinwheels, roller balls and surface crusts on W-SW slopes.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.