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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 2nd, 2014–Mar 3rd, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Monday: Light snowfall becoming moderate overnight / Moderate to strong southerly winds / Freezing level at 1100mTuesday: Moderate snowfall becoming light by the afternoon / Moderate to strong southwest winds / Freezing level at surfaceWednesday: Mix of sun and cloud with a possibility of flurries / Light ridgetop winds / Freezing level at surface

Avalanche Summary

Numerous size 2-2.5 sled-triggered slab avalanches occurred in the Valemount area over the last week. The February 10th interface was the culprit in these events. Isolated reports of remotely triggered avalanches in neighbouring regions also suggest that large slab avalanches on the February 10th interface are still a real possibility.

Snowpack Summary

Light amounts of new snow are expected to overlie weak surface hoar in sheltered areas, a sun crust on solar aspects and thin wind slabs in exposed terrain. These new accumulations are likely to be reactive as wind slab in pockets of exposed terrain.The big news remains a mix of weak surfaces which were buried on February 10th. This persistent interface lies up to a metre below the surface, and includes surface hoar, well developed facets and a mix of hard surfaces which remain widespread at all aspects and elevations. Although natural avalanche activity has tapered-off at this interface, destructive avalanches are still a very real concern with ongoing reports of rider-triggering and sudden snowpack test result results. For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated. Weak basal facets exist in some areas, but triggering has now become unlikely.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.