Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

A significant weather system is expected to impact the Coast Wednesday night into Thursday. A ridge of high pressure will start to build over the Pacific starting Friday. On Saturday and Sunday a stagnant airmass with little in the way of precipitation will return to most of BC.THURSDAY: Overcast, freezing level beginning around 750 m rising to around 1100 m in the afternoon, strong southwest wind, 20 to 30 cm of snow possible at upper elevations.THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast, freezing level near 1200 m, moderate south wind, 10 to 20 mm of precipitation expected.FRIDAY: Scattered cloud, freezing level around 1000 m, light variable wind, 1 to 5 mm of precipitation possible.SATURDAY: Overcast, freezing level beginning around 1000 m, rising to 2500 m throughout the day, light south wind, no precipitation expected.

On Wednesday we received a fantastic MIN report of a size 1.5 skier triggered wind slab in the alpine. You can see it here. This report shows just how different the conditions are between the North Shore and the Squamish area. On Tuesday we received a report of a skier triggering a size 2.0 avalanche on the First Pump of Mount Seymour above the summer snowshoe trail. This is presumed to be the south facing slab at 1300 m, but this is not confirmed. On Monday storm slabs were sensitive to skier triggering to size 1.0 on northwest through southeast facing features with crowns 10 to 15 cm in depth.

In the last 72 hours the North Shore Mountains have received about 91 mm of rain, and approximately 20 cm of snow with a rapidly fluctuating freezing level. A slight crust may have formed on the surface on Wednesday January 10th. Just below the surface, 10 to 20 cm of rain soaked snow now rests on the rain crust that formed Monday January 8th. Below the January 8th crust there is 15 to 30 cm of well settled rain soaked snow, that snow sits on the January 7th melt/freeze crust. The January 8th crust may not be present in the Alpine where temperatures are thought to have stayed cooler over the last few days. Significantly more storm snow is likely present in the Alpine, but we have few observations from that elevation band. Check out this great MIN report for an idea of current alpine conditions. Approximately 50 to 100 cm of moist snow are between the surface and a few prominent melt-freeze crusts that were buried mid-December, these crust layers have been reported to be bonding well to the mid-pack and are trending towards dormancy.The snowpack depth at 1000 m is about 150 cm and many early season hazards are still present.