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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 11th, 2018–Jan 12th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

The new snow may be surprisingly reactive due to underlying crusts.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Friday: About 10cm of the new snow with an additional 10-18cm overnight / Light and variable winds / Freezing level at 700mSaturday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light southwest winds / Freezing level at 1900mSunday: Mostly clear skies / Light southwest winds / Freezing level at 2500m

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday we received a fantastic MIN report of a size 1.5 skier triggered wind slab in the alpine. You can see it here. This report shows just how different the conditions are between the North Shore and the Squamish area. A new round of storm slab activity is expected in response to new snow and wind on Friday and Saturday. At elevations where rain falls, loose wet avalanches are also possible in steep terrain.

Snowpack Summary

In the last few days the North Shore Mountains received about 91 mm of rain, and approximately 20 cm of snow with a rapidly fluctuating freezing level. Depending on elevation, the upper snowpack is likely now a mix of moist snow, crusts and settling storm snow; however, reports from the North Shore indicate that 15cm of moist snow sits above loose dry snow which overlies a crust. This combination has proven to be reactive in surprisingly low-angle terrain. Reactive storm slabs may exist at upper elevations.Approximately 100 cm below the surface you may find a few prominent melt-freeze crusts that were buried mid-December, these crust layers have been reported to be bonding well to the mid-pack and are largely considered dormant.The snowpack depth at 1000 m is about 150 cm and many early season hazards are still present.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.