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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 20th, 2018–Jan 21st, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

Human triggering of sensitive weak layers is likely. Careful evaluation of the snowpack is required for safe travel.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries bringing 2-5 cms. Alpine temperatures will be steady around -8 with freezing levels reaching 1100m. Winds in the alpine will be 25-35 from the Southwest.  Expect unsettled weather over the weekend and early next week.  Sunday looks like the stormiest day with strong winds and 10-20cms of snow forecast

Snowpack Summary

Around 35cm of new storm snow sits atop the January 16 surface hoar layer which is settling quickly and reactive in tests(video here). Strong South winds have redistributed the recent snow in the Alpine. The December 15 surface hoar is down 100cm and is highly visible in profiles. This layer is still producing sudden planar results in tests

Avalanche Summary

In the previous 48 hrs we experienced a natural avalanche cycle triggered by strong winds and snowfall. Forecasters observed size 2-3 avalanches in steep north facing alpine paths.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.