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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 29th, 2017–Dec 30th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Continued slow accumulation of new snow Friday night into Saturday just before a more stable and clearing weather pattern sets in for the rest weekend.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: Trace to 5cm snow overnight Friday into Saturday then a mix of sun and cloud / Light southwest wind / Alpine temperature -15 SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light southwest wind / Alpine temperature -10 MONDAY:  Mix of sun and cloud / Light west wind / Alpine temperature -5

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports are limited to both natural and human triggered loose dry avalanches in steep terrain to size 1 in areas that have not been affected by wind. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10cm of low density new snow has buried a recently formed layer of weak feathery surface hoar and/or sugary facets. A layer buried mid-December that consists of surface hoar, sun crust and/or sugary facets is now down approximately 20-40cm. The bond at this old snow interface is of critical importance in areas where the overlying snow has consolidated into a slab. The most concerning areas are those that saw pronounced surface hoar development before the storm, such as sheltered areas at and below treeline, sheltered northerly aspects in the alpine, or anywhere the surface hoar formed on top of a sun crust. Recent snowpack tests show wide ranging reactivity on this weak layer. A crust which was formed by rain in late November is another major feature in the snowpack and is down approximately 70-100cm at tree line elevations. This interface has shown some signs of reactivity limited to steep, variably loaded alpine features in the adjacent North Columbia region.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.