Persistent warm temperatures are penetrating and destabilizing the upper snowpack. Natural avalanche activity is possible especially on sun exposed slopes. Avoid travel under avalanche paths especially with looming cornices overhead.
Weather Forecast
WEDNESDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with alpine temperatures near +9 degrees. Ridgetop winds moderate from the East and freezing levels above 3000 m. Alpine temperature inversion.THURSDAY: Cloudy. Alpine temperatures +6 degrees with freezing levels 2000 m. Ridgetop winds light from the southwest. FRIDAY: Cloudy with isolated rain showers and some flurries at higher elevations. Alpine temperatures near +1 degrees and freezing levels dropping to 1800 m. Ridgetop winds moderate from the South.
Avalanche Summary
Reports indicated evidence of a natural loose wet avalanche cycle up to size 2 on Monday evening. Skier triggered loose wet avalanches were easily triggered up to size 1.5 and lots of snowballing and sluffing.With continued warming we expect to see natural avalanche activity to continue on all aspects and elevations.
Snowpack Summary
Snow surfaces are highly variable. On higher elevation northerly aspects (above 1900 m) you may find some dry, faceted snow. Some of this has been redistributed by southwesterly and northerly winds, potentially creating some unusual wind slabs. On solar aspects (East, South, West) moist snow exists creating melt-freeze conditions at higher elevations and mostly just melt conditions below treeline. The bigger questions are deeper in the snowpack. With little overnight re-freeze the warm temperatures will penetrate deeper and continue to destabilize the snowpack. Its hard to say how many hot days and warm nights it will it take to wake up the more deeply buried weak layers that we haven't thought about in a long time. Currently, the snowpack is complex and with the continued warming and little overnight re-freeze natural avalanche activity remains possible.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.