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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 12th, 2019–Feb 13th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Although the likelihood of triggering an avalanche has diminished (hence the moderate rating) the consequence of triggering an avalanche is significant. Check out the Forecaster Blog here.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY Night: Mainly cloudy with clear periods, light southeast wind, Alpine temperature -19 CWEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light southwest wind, alpine temperature -14 C.THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light to moderate southeast wind, alpine temperature -12 C.FRIDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5 cm, light east wind, alpine temperature -10 C

Avalanche Summary

A snowmobiler died in a large (size 2) slab avalanche on Saturday just outside this region in the North Columbias (report here). The avalanche was triggered by the rider at 2100 m on a south aspect. The crown fracture varied from 15-100 cm deep, suggesting wind loading was a factor in the incident.On Sunday there was a small human-triggered avalanche was reported from a north aspect at 2100 m. It failed around 35 cm deep on the mid-January surface hoar layer. Although written several days ago, this MIN post describing conditions in Allen Creek is still relevant.

Snowpack Summary

A touchy weak layer responsible for a several close calls and surprise avalanches lies approximately 50 cm below the surface (30 cm in shallow areas, 60 cm or more in deeper spots). This weak layer was buried mid-January and comprises a mix of surface hoar and facets. On southerly aspects, it lies on top of a sun crust. This is a dangerous weak layer that is shallow enough to be easily triggered but deep enough to produce large avalanches. It is most prevalent at treeline and below treeline elevations, but there have been a few reports of its presence in sheltered areas in the alpine.Strong northerly and easterly winds have created complicated patterns of wind-loaded snow.Average snow depths are approximately 270 cm. Lower layers in the snowpack are not a significant factor at this time.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.