Natural avalanche activity is possible especially on sun exposed slopes in the afternoon. Cornices are soft and weak. Avoid travel under, on or anywhere near cornices.
Weather Forecast
Change in the weather pattern is coming. Starting with cloudy skies, falling temperatures and freezing levels by the weekend.THURSDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Freezing levels 2600 m and treeline temperatures near +10 degrees. Ridgetop winds light from the South.FRIDAY: Cloudy. Freezing levels 2500 m and treeline temperatures near +3 degrees. Ridgetop winds moderate from the southeast.SATURDAY: Cloudy with light precipitation (5-15 mm) falling as rain at treeline and below treeline and snow in the alpine. Freezing levels 1600 m and treeline temperatures +2 degrees. Ridgetop winds light from the South.
Avalanche Summary
Natural loose wet avalanches up to size 1 were reported on Tuesday in the North Shore Mountains. Natural activity may start to taper off with cooler temperatures this weekend. Until then you can expect loose wet slides to continue.
Snowpack Summary
Snow surfaces are variable and the heat has likely eliminated any trace of cold snow except on high elevation north features. Melt-freeze conditions (more melt then freeze at lower elevations) exist on all other aspects and elevations and signs of snowballing, surface sluffing and loose wet avalanches are current.Deeper in the snowpack a layer of weak and sugary faceted grains sits on a melt-freeze crust about 50 to 120 cm deep. This layer is most prominent in the North Shore Mountains on north aspects. With little overnight re-freeze the warm temperatures will penetrate deeper and continue to destabilize the snowpack and possibly initiating larger persistent slab avalanches. Its hard to say how many hot days and warm nights it will it take to wake up the more deeply buried weak layers that we haven't thought about in a long time.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.