Avalanche Forecast

Another mostly sunny day with light winds and mild temperatures is expected on Thursday. This should allow for some surface snow melt on sun exposed terrain. Some shallow wet snow conditions may develop by late morning or afternoon on some of these steep sun facing slopes where caution should be exercised.  Previously formed wind slab near ridges should also continue to slowly stabilize. 

Watch for areas where a locally deeper snow pack may exist. The most likely areas to find unstable conditions would be on steep generally northerly to east facing terrain below ridges and near or above tree line. These would be the areas most likely to have formed wind slab that may not have bonded well to the underlying layer.  

Warm wet weather December 13-14th followed by dry weather with high freezing levels helped to form crust layers and generally helped stabilize persistent buried weak layers from earlier in December. A series of fronts over the past four days caused additional precipitation, mostly at moderate freezing levels, causing rain or wet heavy snow at mid and lower elevations while depositing 30-60 cm (1-2 ft) of storm snow over most areas along the west slopes and volcanic peaks. This storm cycle while not powerful by northwest standards, has caused some recent avalanche activity ranging from wet slabs, loose wet, storm slabs and wind slab releases.  The stormy period began Friday with cold temperatures, warmed over the weekend and then was followed by a cooling trend Monday night into Tuesday morning.  Dry weather with temperature inversions at the lower levels and Cascade passes were seen late Tuesday through Christmas Day.  

On Monday 12/23, widespread natural and triggered wind slab releases where seen in the Mt Baker area. The slab releases ranged mostly from 40-60 cm (18-24 inches) and ran long distances with some sympathetic releases. These 1.5-2 size slides released on wind loaded northerly facing slopes below ridges but were extensive. 

NWAC pro-observers in the Rainier area on Sunday and in the Stevens Pass area on Tuesday still reported some concern with denser and newer snow bonding somewhat poorly with newly buried weaker layers.  While the overall trend favors stabilization of the upper snowpack, this is worth keeping in mind as you change aspects and elevations. 

The avalanche danger diminishes rapidly at the lower elevations due to our ongoing lower than normal snowpack.  Non-avalanche hazards such as exposed rocks, creeks, and icy surfaces exist and present a travel challenge.