Regions
Northwest Inland.
Recent storm loading, buried weak layers, high freezing levels and solar radiation are a perfect recipe for widespread avalanche activity on Tuesday.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Tuesday
Weather Forecast
On Tuesday expect mainly clear skies, moderate southwest ridgetop winds and freezing levels around 3000m. On Wednesday and Thursday the region should see light snowfall (3-5cm each day), strong southwest winds and freezing levels at about 1700m.
Avalanche Summary
In the Smithers area on Saturday there were reports of a few naturally triggered wind slab avalanches to size 2 on east and southeast aspects at about 1700m. On Monday, a natural avalanche cycle was also observed in the Howson Range on the west side of the region. Slabs were triggered by warming and were reported to be in the size 2.5-3 range with impressive propagation. Looking forward, solar radiation and skyrocketing freezing levels will likely spark a widespread round of loose wet avalanche activity on Tuesday. Warming will also promote cornice falls, wet slabs and persistent slab avalanches failing on deeper, more destructive weak layers.
Snowpack Summary
Light rain on Monday, and then rising freezing levels and solar radiation will likely leave most surfaces moist or wet on Tuesday. This warming will also have a significant destabilizing effect on the snowpack. Between 18 and 25cm of new snow fell on Sunday. Strong southwest winds have no doubt shifted these accumulations into reactive wind slabs in higher elevation lee terrain. These new accumulations have also added mass and reactivity to a developing slab which overlies buried surface hoar buried at the beginning of February. This layer was observed in the Hankin area and may exist in many other places. The early or mid January surface hoar layer is generally 50-80 cm deep, although it may be buried by well over 100cm of snow in the far west of the region. Observers have found this persistent weakness on all aspects and at all elevations. It consistently produces moderate "pops" results in snowpack tests. Below this, the Boxing Day surface hoar problem may also be lurking. The mid and lower snowpack is generally quite weak and faceted, especially in lower snowpack areas such as the Babines.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.