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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 7th, 2015–Feb 8th, 2015

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Storm slabs have been triggered with light loads in the alpine recently. With a situation as dynamic as this it's best to stick to simple terrain as the snowpack adjusts.

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

The freezing level is expected to remain between 1600 & 1900m for the period. (Sunday, Monday, Tuesday) Looks like 15 -30mm of precipitation Saturday night before a drying trend begins Sunday. Winds should continue to be Strong SW at upper elevations through Sunday afternoon with speeds dropping to light below treeline. Monday looks warm and dry with very little wind, Tuesday appears to be more of the same.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive control work Saturday produced storm slab avalanches to size 3 running 50 to 80cm in depth on the early February crust. Natural loose wet avalanches were reported to have run in the last 48 hours to size 2 as high as 2150m.

Snowpack Summary

The wet warm storm has produced 30 to as much as 100cm of snow above 2200m. The snow is wet below 2000m and saturated below treeline. Moderate to strong winds out of the SW through SE have likely formed deep slabs at upper elevations. All the new snow rests on the early February rain crust, and most of the avalanche activity has been on said crust. I have not heard of anything running below the crust at this point.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.