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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2015–Jan 13th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Very challenging skiing out there right now. Not very inspiring to ski the alpine at the moment. If you can find sheltered areas at treeline, the skiing is actually quite good.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

The northwest flow is with us for at least another three days. As can be predicted with this flow, the skies will remain clear with light to moderate winds at all elevations. The temperatures will be reasonable with alpine temps hovering around -10. Expect shady, sheltered areas to be much colder as the air settles.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches

Snowpack Summary

Forecasters went to Little Tent Ridge today to have a look at W and NW aspects. At 2250m there was 100cm of snow. A 5cm thick reactive hardslab was down 20cms, followed by the fairly dense midpack. Beneath this, the old Nov24 facets were very weak. Surprisingly, the Nov6th crust was intact and still 4cm thick. It sat 15cm's above the ground and rested on a well settled layer of facets. No depth hoar. The stability tests gave two alarming results: a moderate, fast failure(CTM11, sudden plainer) below the upper windslab and a moderate sudden collapse(CTM14) on the Nov 24 facets, down 70cm. There was no sign of the Dec13th crust. Elsewhere the snowpack was very predictable and in tune with other locations. The Dec13th crust down 25cm's, and a midpack that continues to get weaker. The alpine has widespread wind slabs that make for tricky, and potentially dangerous conditions.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.