Unpredictable. That is the best word to describe the snowpack right now. Patience and conservative terrain choices are very important while we wait to see how the snow adjusts to the new load.
Weather Forecast
Today's weather matched the forecast almost exactly. Temps were warm (0 @ 2300m), winds were strong and the snowfall was moderate. The next 48 hours are expected to bring even more snow (up to 58cm's) in three distinct pulses. Tomorrow's pulse will be more sustained in terms of snowfall. As the storm fades overnight friday, the current westerly flow will turn into a northerly. As expected, the snow and wind will stop, and the temperatures will fall to -27.
Avalanche Summary
Skies were partially obscured today so there were no avalanches directly observed. However there was one audible avalanche during our weather observations. Whumphing and cracking was also noted in various locations.
Snowpack Summary
We received an average of 12cm's in the last 24hrs with more on the way. In the alpine, storm snow has had widespread wind effect and redistribution. Alpine storm slabs are widespread, and building fast. At treeline elevations the wind is less powerful, but still a major factor in storm slab development. The relatively warm incoming snow at treeline is prime for windslab development. The Nov 6th crust is now down 40-50cm's and likely to become reactive as the weight of the new snow stresses it. The general feeling with the snowpack is that it's in a time of change and can't be trusted just yet. Snow depths are: Burstall Pass 83, Highwood 53, Aster Lake 87
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.