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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 13th, 2013–Mar 14th, 2013

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Thursday: The next strong pulse of moisture is forecast for Wednesday night, and is expected to continue during the day on Thursday. 10-15 cms overnight and another 20-30 cms during the day. Warm temperatures are not expected to lower overnight, and freezing levels should remain at about 1600 metres.Friday: The Pacific moisture feed should end by late morning as the Low pressure system tracks Northward up the coast. Temperatures and freezing levels should begin to lower. Chance of some broken skies in the afternoon.Saturday: Continued unsettled weather in the wake of the storm. Poor confidence in weather scenarios for Saturday.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanches were reported up to size 1.5 early in the storm before poor visibility and travel conditions limited observations.

Snowpack Summary

A new storm slab is developing due to strong Southwest winds, new snow, and warming temperatures. The new storm snow has buried a thin layer of new snow and wind transported snow that is covering a widespread layer of surface hoar that developed during the recent clear weather. Sun crusts also developed during the clear weather on solar aspects up to about 2000 metres. Some areas had strong winds before the surface hoar was buried, so the distribution may be specific to sheltered and shaded terrain features. There is still concern for the buried weak layer of surface hoar from February 12th that is now down more than a metre in most places. The forecast new load of snow and wind may overload this deeply buried weak layer in areas that did not slide after the last storm.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.