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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 21st, 2013–Mar 22nd, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

The snowpack is slow to improve right now. The crusts we are dealing with will take some time to sort themselves out. Be hesitant to trust the crust interfaces. This is not the time to jump into big terrain. MM

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

The convective snow is predicted to continue for Friday. Amounts are uncertain, but with the wind factored in, the new load could be considerable. Winds will be light in the alpine and shifting to a northerly flow for a brief time. Freezing level will remain at the surface height.

Avalanche Summary

There were no new observations today. However the snowpack still remains touchy with the added load of new snow. The natural cycle may resume with additional load.

Snowpack Summary

10cm of convective snow has fallen in the last 24hrs. This new snow is settling quickly with the warm temps. The bond with the older HST is slow to develop. Ski cutting had small, results in steep terrain. This is expected to improve quickly. The variety of crusts remains the major concern. The bond with the newer storm snow and/or storm slabs is suspect and seems to vary. A brief, natural cycle of in the last 48hrs adds to the suspicion.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.