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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 8th, 2014–Mar 9th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Freezing levels are very important over the next 24hrs.  We are forecasting HIGH below treeline because we anticipate some of the new snow to fall as rain.  Lots of recent skier triggerred avalanches at treeline on the 0211 interface at treeline.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

A fairly significant pulse of snow is expected to cross over the region tonight. Some of this snow may fall as rain at lower elevations so we may see a rapid rise in avalanche danger in these areas.  Snowfall amounts for the spray are 20-25cm while the Aster lake region may see up to 30cm of snow.  Freezing levels are expected to drop following the passage of this system but at the time freezing levels are still around 1900m.  Winds are forecast to be moderate to strong out of the SW.

Avalanche Summary

Two skier accidental avalanches were reported into the office on Friday and forecasters were able to remotely trigger two sz 2 avalanches from open treed terrain on friday. All avalanches were failing at the 0211 interface which consists mainly of facets up to sz 3.  A few loose wet avalanches were also observed below treeline.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temps prevailed again today.  Freezing levels climbed to 2000m today and moist snow was being observed on solar aspects up to 2500m when the sun came out.  The upper snowpack is rapidly settling.  The 0303 interface is gaining strength but the 0211 interface is becomming more reactive to skiers. 

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.