Avalanche Forecast

High -

Thursday night: Flurries bringing approximately 5 cm of new snow. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Friday: Periods of snow bringing 10-20 cm of new snow. Winds moderate to strong from the southwest. Freezing level to 1200 metres with alpine temperatures of -8. Saturday: Cloudy with flurries bringing about 5 cm of new snow. Winds light from the southwest. Freezing level back to valley bottom with alpine temperatures of -11. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. Winds light to moderate from the southeast. Alpine temperatures of -11.

Two natural slab avalanches were reported in the region on Wednesday, running Size 1.5-2. The larger of these was noted to have occurred in steep, crossloaded terrain. Several natural loose dry avalanches were also observed running to Size 1.Backcountry users in the Cariboos should be aware that many parts of the region have a similar snowpack structure to Clemina Creek, where two size 2 snowmobile triggered persistent slab avalanches were reported on Saturday (see MIN report here). On Monday, another size 2 persistent slab avalanche was accidentally triggered by a skier northwest of Valemount. Triggering a large deep persistent slab avalanche is an ongoing low probability - high consequence scenario that demands an extra cautious approach to terrain selection in our region. See here for a list of recent near misses in the Cariboos and North Rockies.Looking forward, Friday's weather can be expected to produce very touchy avalanche conditions, especially in wind affected areas. Avalanche danger will also increasingly affect lower elevation terrain where loose dry and storm slab avalanche hazards continue to build.

Ongoing snowfall has already brought 15-30cm of new snow to the mountains, and more is on the way. The new snow has been accompanied by moderate to strong southerly winds, which has promoted the formation of touchy wind slabs in lee terrain at upper elevations. The new snow has buried faceted surface snow, as well as surface hoar recently reported in sheltered areas in some parts of the region. A thin sun crust may also exist below the new snow on steep solar aspects. About 50cm below the surface you'll likely find the mid-February interface, which is composed of a thick rain crust up to about 1700 m, sun crusts on steep solar aspects, and spotty surface hoar on shaded aspects. The reactivity of this layer is still being monitored, and it's worth keeping an eye on as it gets loaded by more snow. Some lingering surface hoar layers from January are down about a metre and the weak mid-December facets are down about 1.5 metres. These deep persistent weaknesses still have the potential to react to human triggers or smaller storm slab avalanches.