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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 16th, 2015–Feb 17th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Mt Hood.

Look for increasing warmth and sunshine on Tuesday to potentially activate wet loose avalanches during the afternoon hours especially on steeper solar slopes. 

Detailed Forecast

An amplified upper level ridge over the US and BC coast will dominate the weather once more day on Tuesday and maintain the dry and mostly clear conditions. 

Freezing levels will rise and cool east winds will diminish on Tuesday afternoon, increasing the potential for generally small loose wet avalanches. Overnight cooling and surface refreezing will limit this problem during the night and morning hours.

Watch for initial rollerballs or surface wet snow deeper than a few inches and be wary of the small wet loose avalanche potential especially near terrain traps. Small loose wet avalanches are most likely on steeper solar aspects near and above treeline.  

As a result of the overall low snowpack, especially below treeline, watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation.

Snowpack Discussion

Warm and wet southwest flow directed a series of fronts across the Northwest from about February 5th-10th.This brought less rain to Mt. Hood compared to areas in the WA Cascades and led to further snowpack melt at lower elevations. The last weather system in the series crossed the south Cascades late Monday and early Tuesday. This caused strong winds and deposited 15 inches of new snow at 6600 feet at Mt Hood Meadows. Warmer temperatures at Mt Hood over the last week have allowed the most recent storm snow to settle and stabilize. 

NWAC pro-observer CJ Svela was at Timberline on Friday and found possible small loose wet avalanche conditions on solar slopes. He also found stable melt forms and rounded grains in the upper snowpack. 

The Meadows pro-patrol reported a good refreeze of surface snow Monday and Tuesday morning along with no recent avalanche activity.

The mid and lower snowpack at Mt Hood should consist of layers of stable consolidated rounded grains or melt forms and crusts from multiple warm periods this winter.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.