Avalanche Forecast

Clouds should decrease near and west of the crest Wednesday morning. Partly or mostly sunny weather should be seen Wednesday afternoon with moderate temperatures and generally light west winds.

The dry weather and moderate temperatures should lower the avalanche danger a notch on Wednesday compared to the past few days.

But the sun is getting stronger and stronger now that we are well into April. The most extensive concern should be possible wet snow avalanches by Wednesday afternoon especially in new snow on solar slopes above treeline but in older wet snow on other slopes as well. Watch for wet surface snow deeper than a few inches, roller balls in surface snow and small natural wet loose releases that usually precede more major wet loose snow avalanches. Avoid terrain traps where a small but powerful wet loose avalanche could have unintended consequences. 

A less extensive second concern will be possible new wind slab from in the above treeline zone. This should be mainly in the higher parts of the Olympics above Hurricane. This will be limited to lee slopes above treeline that get a few inches of snow. Watch for small areas of firmer wind transported snow.

New storm slab seems unlikely due to the cooling trend and limited amounts of new snow. This should be also be mainly in the higher parts of the Olympics above Hurricane. But watch for small areas of short lived storm slab in more sheltered areas above treeline that get a few inches of snow.

Although it will not be listed as a primary concern continue to be wary of cornices. Cornice failures are often seen during the transition to spring weather. Cornices have grown large recently and often break back further from the edge than expected.

A front crossed the Northwest Friday. Another moist front crossed the Northwest Saturday afternoon and night. Water equivalents and snowfall for these systems at Hurricane were in the .7 and 5 inch range respectively. Warmer temperatures were seen by Sunday and especially Monday. The recent snow and warmer temperatures caused avalanches. Some avalanches were triggered by cornice failures.

NWAC observer Katy Reid observed mashed potato snow, natural pinwheeling and increasing ski penetration into wet surface snow Sunday afternoon. She reported shallow wet loose avalanches below treeline, but found one larger (D2) wet loose avalanche on a steeper NE aspect below treeline (see picture below).  Digging around on different aspects near and below treeline, she found the saturated upper snow (15-50 cm) overlying a hard melt-freeze crust to be un-reactive in snowpit tests. No reports were available Monday, but warmer temperatures and sunshine likely led to additional wet snow avalanches.  Cornices have grown large over the last few weeks.

Wet loose avalanche near Maggie's Bowl, Hurricane Ridge, by NWAC observer Katy Reid on Sunday.

Less avalanche activity should be seen by Tuesday as a front approaches the Northwest and clouds cut down on solar effects and temperatures begin to cool. The southwest to northeast oriented front should shift from the Olympics and north Cascades this afternoon to the south Cascades Tuesday evening. Up to a few inches of snow is possible in the above treeline zone this afternoon through tonight.