Alpine temps remained at or above zero overnight with little to no crust recovery. Avalanche danger will increase as temps rise, especially on south facing terrain. The chance of rain up to 2700m will weaken the snowpack even further.
Weather Forecast
Weather models are competing for this years spring show and can't agree if the sun will shine or rain will fall. The conservative option is to expect sun in the AM and cloud in the PM, freezing levels to 2700m with a chance of rain (1-3mm). Winds will be light, valley bottom temps up to +7 and an alpine high of +3. Temperatures dropping tomorrow.
Snowpack Summary
Surface hoar growth in shaded locations. Snowpack is well settled with no notable layers in the upper snowpack. Expect surface crust on all aspects and elevations except North and East in the Alpine and upper treeline. Solar aspects will become moist and unstable as temps rise over the day. Cool dry snow found on high polar aspects.
Avalanche Summary
Solar aspects producing loose moist avalanches up to size 3, a few of which have gouged to ground. The Connaught creek skin track has been buried several times this week from avalanches originating from steep solar aspects in the alpine running to valley bottom.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.