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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2018–Mar 13th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Jasper.

Highway 93 from Athabasca falls to Saskatchewan Crossing is closed for Avalanche control Monday and Tuesday

Weather Forecast

Strong high pressure with southern warm air will persist for another 2-3 days bringing rising freezing levels into the alpine and strong sun effect throughout the forecast zone. A small change is expected for later in the week with a return to more seasonable temperatures. Flurries may accompany the change of systems on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

A relatively cold winter created a structurally weak snowpack slowly warming under spring-like temps and strong solar radiation. Settlement and sintering is occurring with warmer temps and melt-freeze crusts are developing on steep solar slopes. Mid and lower snowpack weaknesses persist but are not reacting to shear tests or natural triggers.

Avalanche Summary

Warm temps and rising freezing levels are resulting in loose dry avalanches on shaded slopes and loose wet avalanches on solar slopes to treeline. Avalanches treeline and below are not propagating widely, occurring to size 2, slowing in terrain that levels out or has dense vegetation. Alpine slopes have slab potential and should become more active.

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.