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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 10th, 2020–Feb 13th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Incoming snow amounts vary widely between weather models. Forecast is based on 5cm of new snow over the forecast period, IF MORE THAN 15cm OF SNOW ARRIVES, INCREASE THE HAZARD RATING BY ONE LEVEL.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Scattered flurries, up to 5cm of snow. Moderate to strong west winds, alpine high -6

Wednesday: Scattered flurries, up to 4cm of snow. Moderate SW winds, alpine high -8

Thursday: Flurries, up to 7cm. Moderate to strong west winds, alpine high -6

Snowpack Summary

5-10cm of recent snow with more in the forecast has formed new slabs with southwest winds. This sits on old wind slabs and a thick crust below 2000m that has locked up the lower snowpack. The midpack is well settled, though weaker basal facets can be found in thin areas.

Avalanche Summary

Several loose dry avalanches to size 1.5 were observed on Monday in steep south facing terrain running on the February 1 crust. Older larger natural windslabs to size 2 in lee alpine features were also observed and likely occured during the weekend. Surrounding operations reported skier triggered windslabs to size 1.5 on Sunday on a SE aspect.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.