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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 20th, 2022–Jan 21st, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

The warming and sun are not expected to have much impact on the rain soaked snowpack this weekend but loose wet avalanches could be possible from steep, sun exposed slopes. The more the surface crust breaks down over the weekend, the more likely wet loose avalanches will become. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

A warm ridge of high pressure establishes itself over the region on Friday and is expected to bring sustained freezing levels around 3000 m for the weekend with a chance of an inversion. 

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, moderate NW wind, freezing levels 1200-1400 m. 

Friday: Mainly sunny, moderate NW wind, freezing levels climbing to around 3000 m. 

Saturday: Mainly sunny, moderate NW wind, freezing levels around 3200 m. 

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate W wind, freezing levels around 3000 m dropping to around 2000 m overnight. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity have been reported over the last few days.

Observations remain limited. If you head out into the mountains, please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Another round of heavy rain and warm temperatures have saturated the surface snow to mountain top elevations and a widespread crust has formed where the snow surface has refrozen. Below this crust, snow is moist down around 50 cm and several old crusts are now breaking down. The middle and base of the snowpack are well settled and strong, consisting of well bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.