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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2022–Jan 16th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

In your quest for dry snow in the high alpine, watch for pockets of wind slab that are still possible to trigger. At lower elevations a thick surface crust reduces the likelihood of avalanche activity.

Confidence

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Weather Forecast

Unsettled conditions and shifting freezing levels remain until Monday, when the next front approaches bringing light snow to the Coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods, no precipitation, 20-30 km/h southwesterly winds, low alpine temperature -3 C with freezing level around 1300 m.

SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, accumulation 1-3 cm, 30-50 km/h southwesterly winds, high alpine temperature -2 C with freezing level around 1300 m in the north and up to 1800 m in the south.

MONDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries, accumulation 3-5 cm, 50-60 km/h southwesterly winds, high alpine temperature -1 C with freezing level around 1300 m in the north and up to 1800 m in the south.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries, accumulation 1-3 cm, 10-20 km/h northerly winds, high alpine temperature -3 C with freezing level around 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Recent warm temperatures and intense precipitation produced widespread avalanche cycles at all elevations. Natural avalanches to size 3 occurred in the storm snow at higher elevations where snow was less affected by rain. Lower elevations received significant rainfall and produced wet loose and slab avalanches to size 2.5. Following the storm, avalanche activity has tappered off on Friday and Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Mixed precipitation and warm temperatures over the last week have created a variety of surface snow conditions. Recent snowfalls with strong southwest winds have created pockets of dry snow at alpine elevations. Precipitation fell as wet snow or rain below 2000m, creating saturated upper snowpack that has now formed a melt freeze crust with moist snow below. 

Two buried weak layers of sugary, faceted grains sit in the middle and lower snowpack, around 50cm deep and 80-200 cm deep. Early Decembers heavy rain and following cold spell formed the deeper layer of facets, that is now most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. Avalanches on this layer are large, but sporadic and isolated. The most likely place to trigger it would be in thin, rocky snowpack areas.

The lower snowpack is well-settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.