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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 22nd, 2022–Jan 23rd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

http://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/links/goto_e.asp?destination=http://avalanche.ca/spaw/2022-01-20-spaw

There is a special avalanche warning in effect for our area.

Rising freezing levels and solar radiation may trigger another large avalanche cycle this weekend.

Minimize your exposure to overhead avalanche terrain.

Weather Forecast

Battle of the Weather Models continue, as they can't seem to agree on freezing levels. Sunday will see a mix of sun and cloud with a freezing level up to 2300m (highest forecasted elevation) and an alpine high of -2. Winds will be from the West, 25-60km/hr. Freezing level will drop back down to valley bottom on Monday. No new snow in the forecast.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 35cm of recent snow now buries the Jan 20th (2-4mm) surface hoar. The Jan 11 (2-5mm) surface hoar is down ~70-90cm. The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is down ~1.5 - 2.5m. This layer came alive last storm and will be a lingering concern. Wind and warming temps will promote the formation of wind slabs along ridge lines and cross loaded features.

Avalanche Summary

Helicopter Avalanche Control on Saturday, just West of the Park produced several size 4 avalanches.

A natural avalanche cycle occurred on Thursday with a notable size 4 off of Ross Peak that ran into the Elephants Trunk in Loop Brook.

A widespread natural and artillery avalanche cycle occurred last Monday up to size 4, with some crowns over 2m deep.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.