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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2022–Jan 7th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

If tomorrow's storm happens, we will have a complex snowpack to deal with for a few days. Touchy windslabs, an uncertain persistent problem and lots of loose snow for entrainment will keep us all on our toes...or at least it should!

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

We will get a brief reprieve from the cold tomorrow as temperatures approach -6 for the day time high. As this relative warm front passes through we will also get up to 20cm of snow by Friday night. Winds will be an issue as they are expected to ramp up tonight and continue on through the entire storm. Treeline winds will be moderate from the west and alpine winds will strong from the west.

Avalanche Summary

Some good observations today on our control run(EEOR) which were somewhat surprising. We were hoping to trigger windslabs on the Dec or Nov crust, but instead made several large holes that triggered sz 1.5-2 loose dry avalanches. There was one small slab at treeline that entrained enough loose snow that combined to make a healthy sz 2...maybe 2.5 if you are feeling generous. No other observations from our travels today.

Snowpack Summary

An avalanche control run today reiterated how loose the surface snow has become. Windslabs do exist at treeline and above, but entrainment of loose faceted snow is now factoring into avalanche size. This makes it tricky to nail down sizes. Safe to say you should expect bigger avalanches than anticipated. As far as windslabs are concerned, they are lingering in wind prone areas at upper treeline and alpine elevations. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.