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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 30th, 2024–Jan 31st, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal, Boundary, Stewart, Ningunsaw, Ningunsaw, Ningunsaw.

Continue to make conservative terrain choices.

We are transitioning out of a warm, stormy period that introduced rapid change to the snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, a widespread natural avalanche cycle continued on all aspects and elevations, up to size 3.5. These avalanches occurred during an intense, stormy period of wind, snow and rain.

A few natural avalanches continued to occur through the day on Tuesday, and looking forward to Wednesday, we think that human-triggered avalanches will remain likely.

Snowpack Summary

Light to moderate snowfall continues as the freezing level drops.

Over the last week, this forecast area has seen significant rain and snow. The upper snowpack is likely very dense, settling rapidly, and moist or wet at treeline elevations and below, where some of this snow fell as rain. In the alpine, strong southerly winds have been blowing this snow, depositing it as thick and touchy slabs on leeward slopes.

A weak layer of surface hoar and/or facets formed earlier in the month is now buried around 60-80cm. Below this, a thick crust from January 1st exists up to around 1600 m. There is high potential for the warm temperatures and new precipitation to overload these layers triggering very large avalanches.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy. Trace of snow expected above 750 m. Moderate southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -1 °C.

Wednesday

Cloudy. 5-15 cm of snow expected above 500 m. Moderate southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -2 °C.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy. 3-7 cm of snow expected above 1200 m. Moderate south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -1 °C.

Friday

Partly cloudy. 5-15 cm of snow expected to near valley bottom. Moderate west ridgetop wind. Temperature dropping rapidly, treeline low around -7 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.