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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 12th, 2024–Feb 13th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells, Dogtooth, East Purcell.

Tracks on a slope do not mean it is safe.

This is a low-probability, high-consequence snowpack that's best managed by riding conservative terrain.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported at the time of publishing on Monday.

A large avalanche near Golden from Jan 29th reported in this MIN and pictured in this MIN, is a perfect example of the sporadic, deep persistent avalanche activity that continues to occur as recently as Saturday. Steep, rocky, treeline and alpine terrain where the crust is not supportive are likely trigger spots.

Snowpack Summary

New snow has buried various layers of soft snow, wind-affected, and sun crusts. Further burying a crust now down 15 to 20 cm. This crust is generally supportive but tapers in the alpine and may be unsupportive to riders.

The midpack is generally faceted and the lower snowpack contains weak faceted grains, depth hoar, and crusts that continue to produce sporadic large avalanches.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

A mix of sun and cloud with 0 to 5 cm of snow. 10 to 20 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -12 °C.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud. 10 to 20 km/h north ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny. 0 to 15 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -12 °C.

Thursday

Clear skies. 0 to 15 km/h east ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -15 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.