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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2025–Jan 4th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Badshot-Battle, Goat, Kokanee, Retallack, Valhalla.

Fresh, reactive wind slabs may be evident in wind-loaded areas, while dangerous weak layers hide deeper in the snowpack.

Choose sheltered, low-consequence terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Large natural and human-triggered persistent slab avalanches have occurred in the past week on the weak layer buried in early December. The most concerning area has been in the Goat Range. This problem is starting to improve but deserves patience and continued vigilance. Watch this recent State of the Snowpack video for more details.

Snowpack Summary

Expect to find 20 to 50 cm of settling snow in sheltered areas and pockets of wind slabs in exposed areas at upper elevations. On sun-affected slopes, soft snow covers a melt-freeze crust.

A concerning layer of facets, crusts, and/or surface hoar is buried 60 to 110 cm. It will most likely be a problem on north through east aspects between 1700 and 2300 m.

Treeline snow depths range from 100 to 180 cm.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy with up to 5 cm of new snow. 5 to 15 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy with light flurries, up to 3 cm of new snow. 5 to 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -7 °C.

Sunday

Cloudy with 2 to 10 cm of new snow. 5 to 15 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C.

Monday

A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries. 5 to 15 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid freshly wind-loaded terrain features.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.
  • This avalanche problem is difficult to trigger, but would have serious consequences.
  • Avoid steep terrain, including convex rolls, or areas with a thin, rocky, or variable snowpack.
  • Use conservative route selection and resist venturing into complex terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.