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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2024–Mar 16th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Okanagan, Shuswap, North Okanagan.

Avoid avalanche terrain during the warmest parts of the day.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday several natural and ski cut loose wet avalanches were triggered in the area near Big White.

Looking forward, we expect that natural avalanches will be likely, and human-triggered avalanches will be very likely.

If you are getting out in the backcountry, consider making a post on the MIN (Mountain Information Network). You can share riding conditions, avalanche or snowpack observations, or even just a photo or two.

Snowpack Summary

During the day, frozen and crusty surface snow will melt and turn moist or slushy due to high freezing levels combined with intense sun. This will be especially prevalent on sunny slopes and at lower elevations. This will cause the avalanche hazard to rise as the day warms. High elevation shady north-facing slopes may still have some dry snow.

A widespread crust is buried 40-90 cm. In some areas, a weak layer of facets can be found above. Recent tests suggested this layer was gaining strength, and no recent avalanche activity had been reported. However, we expect the warm weather to destabilize the snowpack, and this layer could become active again. 

The snowpack below this crust is strong and well-bonded.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Clear. No new snow expected. 20 to 30 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature falling to 0 °C. Freezing level around 3100 m with a potential temperature inversion below 1500 m.

Saturday

Sunny. No new snow expected. 10 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 3400 m. Treeline high around 12 °C.

Sunday

Sunny. No new snow expected. 20 km/h south ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 3200 m. Treeline high around 12 °C.

Monday

Mostly sunny. No new snow expected. 10 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 3100 m. Treeline high around 12 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • Be aware that wet activity at low elevations is a classic situation for step-down failures in deeply buried persistent weak layers.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.