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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 19th, 2024–Mar 20th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Large, unpredictable natural avalanches are still possible.

Avoid areas with overhead hazard, especially solar aspects.

Avoid steep slopes if the snow is moist or slushy.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Large wet slab, natural avalanches continue on all aspects. With several natural avalanches size 3-3.5 observed on Tuesday.

A field team investigated an avalanche from March 18th, on a N aspect at treeline. This size 3, natural avalanche failed down ~120 cm on the Feb 3rd persistent weak layer.

A notable size 4 from the West Face of Mt. Cheops on Friday. These avalanches were failing within the moist upper snowpack and stepping down to the persistent weak layer (over 1m deep).

Snowpack Summary

New snow will start to bury a crust on all aspects and elevations, except alpine polar slopes.

The March 8th interface, which is a crust on steep, solar terrain and preserved stellars elsewhere is down ~40cm and reactive in snowpack tests

80-140cm of settled snow sits above a sugary facet layer. These facets are poorly bonded to the widespread, firm crust from Feb 3rd. This is a significant persistent weak layer and will be a concern for the foreseeable future.

Weather Summary

A approaching cold front, will bring cooler temperature and light to moderate snow.

Tonight: Cloudy, Alp Low: -2, Light SW winds, Fz Lvl: 800 m

Wed: Flurries, 10-15 cm, Alp High: -1, Light W winds, Fz Lvl: 1900 m

Thurs: Snow, 15-20 cm, Alp High: -9, Light gusting to Mod W winds, Fz Lvl: 1600 m

Fri: Cloudy, Alp High: -6, Light E winds, Fz Lvl: 1200m

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid areas with overhead hazard, especially solar aspects.
  • Remember that in the spring strong solar radiation and warm temperatures can weaken the snow in a matter of minutes.
  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.