Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 5th, 2026–Feb 6th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Flathead, Lizard, Moyie, St. Mary.

Warm temperatures continue to form cohesive slabs over a widespread weak layer.

The likelihood and potential size of slab avalanches largely depend on the depth of this layer.

Confidence

Moderate

We are uncertain due to how buried persistent weak layers will react with the forecast weather.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle occurred last weekend with numerous slab avalanches up to size 2. All of these appeared to fail on the late-January surface hoar/crust/facet layer outlined in the snowpack summary.

While avalanche activity has largely decreased since last weekend, several small (size 1 to 1.5) human-triggered avalanches have occurred throughout the week on a variety of aspects at treeline and above.

Snowpack Summary

Either a thin surface crust or moist snow is expected Friday morning, depending on the strength of the overnight freeze.

Continued above-freezing temperatures and sunny skies will likely create moist snow surfaces on all aspects and at all elevations by Friday afternoon.

Approximately 10 to 30 cm of snow continues to settle into cohesive slabs over the late-January weak layer. This layer consists of a melt-freeze crust of variable thickness, with a possibility of surface hoar on top and faceted snow above and/or below the crust.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled, with no significant concerns.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night
Clear skies. 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 4 °C. Freezing level 3500 m.

Friday
Sunny. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 3 °C. Freezing level 3200 m.

Saturday
Mostly sunny. 1 to 3 mm of precipitation as snow or rain at treeline. 50 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 1900 m.

Sunday
Mostly cloudy. 10 to 30 mm of precipitation as snow or rain at treeline. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1800 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

The more the snowpack warms up and weakens, the more conservative your terrain selection should be.
Avoid areas where the snow feels stiff and/or slabby.
Remote triggering is a concern; avoid terrain where triggering overhead slopes is possible.
Avoid travelling on slopes below cornices.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.