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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 30th, 2021–Dec 1st, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

A large, widespread natural avalanche cycle will begin tonight and continue into Wednesday. Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Confidence

High - We are confident a natural avalanche cycle will begin shortly after the arrival of the incoming weather.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday night: Another warm wet storm will hit the range tonight. Freezing levels will rise to 1600m with up to 20mm of precipitation and strong winds from the Southwest.

Wednesday: Freezing levels will remain around 1600m for the day. Moderate to heavy precipitation with the highest amounts expected in the South of the range. Up to 50mm. Winds will continue to be strong from the Southwest.

Thursday: A weak ridge of high pressure will build over the range bringing dry conditions. Freezing levels will fall to valley bottom or near valley bottom. Alpine winds will be moderate from the West.

Friday: -10 at 1500m, no precipitation expected and alpine winds light from the West.

Avalanche Summary

A consistent storm pattern has given the snowpack little time to stabilize between snowfalls. Heavy snowfall, strong winds, and rising freezing levels will layer increasingly large and reactive storm slabs across the region over the coming days. Both the new snow interface and other recent (deeper) storm interfaces have potential to act as failure planes in forecast avalanche activity.

Several wet slab avalanches up to size 2.5 were observed on Monday. We expect to see more of these type of avalanches in the treeline and below treeline as freezing levels once again rise and rain is expected at lower elevations.

Snowpack Summary

The incoming storm will form touchy storm slabs in the treeline and alpine. Large and destructive avalanches are expected.

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The mid and lower snowpack contains multiple crusts that seem to be holding strong. Forecast snowfall and associated natural avalanche activity will test them.

Snowpack depths are currently around 100 cm below treeline, but shrink rapidly below 1600 m. Alpine snowpacks are expected to be around 150 cm deep, but could be 230 cm or more in areas with more snowfall or wind-transported snow. The deepest snowpacks this season have been reported near Blue River and Valemount.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.