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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 8th, 2021–Dec 9th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Purcells.

Watch wind loaded ridge crests and cross-loaded features as recent storm snow gains strength.

As hazard improves, keep in mind that deeper weak layers are still possible to trigger. Steer clear of rocky start zones, where weak layers are shallow.

Confidence

High - Uncertainty is due to the complexity of the snowpack’s structure.

Weather Forecast

Snowfall tapers as the front exits today, replaced by scattered flurries and mixed cloud until a juicer system approaches this weekend.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Flurries continue with moderate west-southwest winds. 2-5cm of snowfall is expected overnight. Freezing levels drop to valley bottom. 

THURSDAY: Cloudy with a chance of flurries, moderate westerlies. Freezing levels at valley bottom. Alpine highs of -9. 

FRIDAY: Trace amounts of snow, most cloudy. Freezing level at valley bottom, alpine highs of -9. Light westerlies. 

SATURDAY: Light to moderate snowfall starts early Saturday morning. Freezing levels climb to 1500m. Alpine highs of -3. Strong to extreme southwest winds. 

Avalanche Summary

Explosive control work near Golden yesterday produced several wind slabs up to size 1.5 in steep and unsupported terrain features. 

A MIN report submitted on Sunday Dec 5 from the Brewer Creek area reported a column test failure on the Nov 21 SH down 60cm. Several avalanches that occurred in the Toby Creek drainage are thought to have failed on the same layer. This is believed to be lurking around the Toby Creek area, however data is sparse this early in the season and this layer is believed to extend to other areas.

Explosive control work near Golden on Dec 5th produced a size 2 slab avalanche that failed to ground in a steep and unsupported terrain feature. A naturally triggered size 3 was also observed on a west facing slope in the Northern zone of the Purcells, believed to have occurred around the 2nd of December. 

Two Mountain Information Network (MIN) reports (MIN 1 and MIN 2) from Dec 3 in Quartz Creek also reported deep persistent avalanches failing at the base of the snowpack. 

Snowpack Summary

Up to 40cm of storm snow sits over a thick and supportive melt freeze crust on all aspects up to 2400m. Westerly winds have redistributed new snow into deeper deposits in wind loaded features at higher elevations.

A surface hoar layer extends throughout the Toby Creek drainage and surrounding areas - down 30 to 70 cm in sheltered features at treeline and below. Recent snowpack tests have shown this layer to produce sudden propagating fractures. We have limited knowledge of the distribution of this layer, but suspect is its most prevalent between 1900-2400m.  

A late October facet/crust layer of concern sits at the bottom of the snowpack above 1900m. This layer has been reactive to human and explosive triggers, producing large avalanches. This layer is widespread throughout the region and will likely continue to be a layer of concern.

Average snowpack depth at treeline is 100-180cm, with the deepest snowpack found near the Bugaboos. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Be aware of highly variable recent wind loading patterns.
  • Avoid slopes that sound hollow or drum-like.
  • Avoid areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.