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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 29th, 2023–Jan 30th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kakwa, Pine Pass, Tumbler.

Use caution as you gain elevation. Deeper layers are most likely to be triggered at upper treeline/lower alpine.

Read more in the latest Forecaster Blog.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported in the past couple days in the region.

A Thursday report identified a size 2.5 avalanche on a northeast slope, triggered by a cornice failure.

An ongoing concern for step-down and large natural and human-triggered deep persistent slab avalanches is at the forefront of our minds. Check out this video on incremental loading to learn more.

Please continue to send in your observations through the MIN.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow has been redistributed into wind slabs on southerly aspects in the alpine. This new snow rests over a crust on solars and all aspects below 1600m.

Snowpack depths are shallower than normal resulting in a weaker snowpack. Several crust/facet layers exist in the upper and mid snowpack. It is also possible to find small surface hoar crystals at these interfaces. Recent observations suggest these layers are not as concerning as further south.

The most concerning layer in this area is at the base of the snowpack. Large, weak facets buried in November are widespread. This layer is most likely problematic in steep, rocky alpine terrain, where shallower wind slab avalanches can scrub down to these basal facets.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Cloudy with no new snow expected. Strong north to northwest winds and a low of -25 at 1800m.

Monday

Mostly cloudy with around 5cm of new snow expected. Strong northwest winds and a high of -13 at 1800m, possible temperature inversion with colder temps lower in valleys.

Tuesday

Stormy with 5 to 15cm of new snow expected. Moderate to strong west winds with a high of -12 at 1800m.

Wednesday

Cloudy with 5 to 10cm of new snow expected. Light to moderate west winds and a high of -20 at 1800m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.