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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2020–Mar 17th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

A stable weather pattern is forecast for the next few days. Minimize exposure to steep slopes facing the sun during the hottest part of the day.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods, light north wind, alpine temperature -9 C.

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light northwest wind, alpine temperature -7 C, freezing level 1000 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light northwest wind, alpine temperature -10 C, freezing level 500 m.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light northwest wind, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Recent avalanche activity includes reports of a few natural wind slab avalanches to size 2 in the alpine on northerly aspects also several cornice failures to size 2.5.

Snowpack Summary

Recent moderate to strong northeast wind has redistributed snow and formed wind slabs at all elevations. 

A weak layer of surface hoar buried at the end of February may be found 50-100 cm deep. Sheltered north, northeast, and east facing slopes near treeline are the most likely locations to find this layer. Reports indicate that this layer may be absent in the northern tip of the region.

There is a low likelihood of triggering an avalanche on this layer, but the consequences of doing so would be high. Read more about surface hoar on our forecaster blog.

Terrain and Travel

  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.