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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2021–Mar 13th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Rising freezing levels and sunshine will increase the likelihood of avalanches in many areas. Avoid exposure to cornices and steep sun-exposed slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy / light to moderate southwest wind / alpine low temperature near 1 / freezing level 2000 m 

SATURDAY - Mainly sunny / moderate south wind / alpine high temperature near 4 / freezing level 2300 m

SUNDAY - Snow and rain mix, 25 cm/mm / strong south wind / alpine high temperature near 0 / freezing level 1600 m in the morning, dropping to 1000 m in the afternoon

MONDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / light variable wind / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 1000 m

Avalanche Summary

Rising freezing levels and sunshine will increase the likelihood of avalanches and cornice failures on Saturday. 

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs can be found on leeward slopes at upper elevations and may remain possible to trigger. Solar aspects likely have a crust on the surface, which will become moist when exposed to sun and rising freezing levels. Soft, dry snow may still be found in sheltered, shaded areas. Massive cornices exist on ridgelines, which can act as triggers on slopes below. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
  • Cornices often break further back than expected; give them a wide berth when traveling on ridgetops.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.