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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 10th, 2021–Jan 11th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

A bit of new snow with strong wind will keep upper elevation wind slabs fresh on Monday. They will likely be thin but reactive, especially to human triggers.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

Sunday night: Flurries, 5-10 cm, strong south wind, freezing level 1000 m.

Monday: Flurries, up to 5 cm, strong south wind, alpine high -5, freezing level 1300 m.

Tuesday: Flurries, up to 5 cm, strong southeast wind, alpine high -5, freezing level 1300 m.

Wednesday: Snow, 5-15 cm, strong southwest wind easing, alpine high -9, freezing level 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

We have had a few recent reports of natural cornice falls and wind slab avalanches size 1-2 out of steep alpine terrain on north to east aspects

Field observations in this region are limited. If you get out, please consider submitting your observations to the Mountain Information Network. 

Snowpack Summary

Small amounts of new snow fall on surface hoar in many areas and a thin crust on solar aspects. Severely wind affected surfaces can be found at upper elevations, and in northern parts of the region, wind effect extends all the way down to treeline. Cornices have been growing large at ridgetop.

A couple of persistent weak layers exist in the upper to mid snowpack, down 20-60 cm and 70-100 cm. The distribution of these layers are variable, the upper layer spotty at treeline and below and the lower layer can present as surface hoar and/or a crust. It has been reported as most prevalent in areas near Valemount. Avalanche activity on these layers have dwindled since the storm and snowpack tests results have been moderate to hard planar, but still showing some propagation.

There is a prominent crust near the base of the snowpack. This crust likely has weak facets above and/or below it. There have been no recent avalanches reported on this layer, but would be most likely to trigger in steep, shallow, rocky terrain, where the snowpack transitions from thin to thick over a short distance.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.