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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2021–Jan 6th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

A reactive storm slab at and below treeline was triggered by multiple parties yesterday in Puff Daddy, Napoleon Spur, and McGill.

Choose conservative, well-supported runs today and avoid getting pushed into a terrain trap.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with flurries the next couple of days, then a high pressure ridge will clear things out by Thursday

Today: cloudy with sunny periods, trace snowfall, Alpine high -8*C, light/mod SW winds

Tonight: increasing cloud, 4cm, alpine high -8*C, mod S winds

Wed: flurries, 5-10cm, alpine high -7*C, gusty mod SW winds

Thurs: cloud with sun, light winds

Snowpack Summary

75cm of snowfall over the last 3 days was accompanied by strong to extreme winds from the SW. A surface hoar layer, buried Dec 26, is preserved in sheltered areas at and below treeline, down 70+cm. The Dec 13 surface hoar can still be found down 120cm and the Dec 7 crust/facet/surface hoar (aspect/elevation dependent) layer is down 135+cm.

Avalanche Summary

Overnight natural activity saw several sz 3's off Mt's Tupper and Macdonald.

Multiple MIN reports indicated people were able to trigger soft slabs, 30-70cm deep, at and below treeline to sz 2 yesterday.

Large avalanches to sz 4 were triggered by artillery control Saturday night, which ran to valley bottom and buried the highway.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.