Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 9th, 2022–Apr 10th, 2022

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Monitor surface snow and watch for changing conditions as you transition through aspect and elevations.

Wet avalanches are possible on south facing terrain features affected by strong sunshine & wind slabs may be reactive at higher elevations.

Confidence

High - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack. The snowpack structure is generally well understood.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with flurries of up to 5 cm in localized areas. Freezing levels below 500 m. Light northerly winds.

SUNDAY: Clear skies in the morning with increasing cloud. Freezing levels rise to around 900 m. Light northeast winds.

MONDAY: Mostly clear skies with light and variable winds. No precipitation expected. Freezing levels reach 1000 m.

TUESDAY: Mostly clear skies with light to moderate easterly winds. Freezing levels reach 800 m. Flurries possible, up to 3 cm.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported in the last 3 days. We would expect small natural and human triggered avalanches out of wind loaded features at higher elevations.

Observations are very limited this time of year. If you are getting out in the backcountry, please consider sharing your observations to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

10-20 cm of new snow can be found at high elevations, sitting over a melt freeze crust or moist snow. Strong southwest winds have likely redistributed this storm snow into pockets of wind loading on north and east facing slopes. A widespread and supportive melt freeze crust is buried 60-110 cm deep, below recent settling storm snow. Recent tests suggest that this crust is bonding well to the snow above it.

A thick and widespread crust sits on the surface to around 1400 m. Periods of sun may soften the crust on south facing slopes over the day. Now is no time to think of what you do not have, think of what you can do with what there is. Head to wind sheltered features at higher elevations to escape the crust and possibly find good skiing. The middle and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.