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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2026–Jan 14th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Moyie.

There is uncertainty on how prolonged warming and sun will impact the snowpack on Wednesday.

Don't let good weather lure you into dangerous terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

  • Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, stormy conditions and rising temperatures produced several natural and skier-triggered storm and wind slabs (size 1-2) from alpine terrain.

On Tuesday, natural storm slabs up to size 2 were observed from alpine and treeline terrain. Explosive control in the Fernie area produced storm slabs up to size 2 from alpine terrain.

Looking forward to Wednesday, warm temperatures and sun may continue to destabilize an already weak snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

The surface snow is moist or crusty in many areas due to recent rain and warm temperatures. Up to 25 cm of recent storm overlies stiff, wind-affected surfaces.

A weak layer of surface hoar can be found in some sheltered terrain features buried 40 to 60 cm. In other areas, a melt-freeze crust can be found at similar burial depths, up to around 2000 m.

The remaining snowpack currently has no layers of concern.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 1 °C. Freezing level 3400 m.

Wednesday
Mix of sun and clouds. 50 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 1 °C. Freezing level 3500 m.

Thursday
Mostly sunny. 50 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Friday
Sunny. 30 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 300 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices.
  • Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
  • Surface hoar distribution is highly variable. Avoid generalizing your observations.
  • Keep in mind that the high density of wet avalanches can make them destructive.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.