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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 17th, 2023–Jan 18th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Don't let an absence of surface instabilities obscure the bigger issue. The basal snowpack is strengthening, but still demands diligent group management. Keep regrouping in safe locations, spacing out, and avoiding shallow rocky start zones.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported in the region.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Light new snow amounts have gradually been accumulating on a crust up to 2000 m formed by high freezing levels over the weekend. It adds to already heavily wind-affected surfaces above this elevation. More forecast light flurries won't do much to change this picture over the next few days.

Snowpack testing from our field team indicates the snowpack is gaining strength. A facet/crust layer from mid-December is down 40-70 cm (and 2 cm thick at TL elevation), below the mid-pack is settled and consolidated.

The basal snowpack, or bottom 20-40 cm, consists of faceted grains and is associated with the deep persistent avalanche problem. Observations Tuesday are beginning to suggest strengthening in this area of the snowpack. Treeline snow depths are roughly 120-160 cm.

Weather Summary

Tuesday night

Cloudy. Light west or northwest winds.

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Light to moderate west or southwest winds, increasing over the day. Treeline high temperatures around -5.

Thursday

Diminishing cloud with isolated flurries. Light west winds. Treeline high temperatures around -4 C.

Friday

Mainly sunny. Light west winds, becoming strong northwest in the alpine. Treeline high temperatures around -5.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.