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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 11th, 2023–Jan 12th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

A sustained period of heavy precipitation and extreme wind Wednesday night through Friday means the avalanche danger will be HIGH. Minimize your exposure to avalanche terrain.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported, however heavy precipitation and extreme winds over the next 48 hours will likely trigger a natural avalanche cycle at upper elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30cm of new snow may be sitting on a crust that formed Tuesday night.

There is likely 90-130cm sitting over a thin crust layer above 1000 m. This crust has been highlighted as a critical avalanche layer in recent snowpack tests. Frequent rain has been eroding the already thin snowpack below this elevation.

Snowpack depths at treeline are around 120 cm, tapering quickly with elevation. Although the snowpack in most forested areas below treeline remains below threshold depths for avalanches, many steep bluffs, cutbanks, and alpine features in the upper below treeline band are capable of producing avalanches.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Heavy precipitation overnight bringing 20-30 cm of new snow to upper elevations. Strong to extreme southerly wind. Treeline high temperatures around -2°C with a freezing level around 1000m.

Thursday

Heavy precipitation falling as snow above 1000m until mid-morning. Accumulations of 20-40cm through the day at upper elevations. Snowfall will shift to rain by midday below 1600m. Extreme south winds. Treeline high temperatures reaching +2 as the freezing level climbs from 1000 to 1800 m throughout the day.

Friday

Cloudy with continuing heavy rain at all but highest alpine elevations. Extreme south winds. Treeline high temperatures around +4 with freezing levels between 1800 to 2000m.

Saturday

Cloudy with flurries at upper elevations. Moderate south winds. Treeline high temperature around -1.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Stick to simple terrain features and be certain your location isn't threatened by overhead hazard.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.