Danger is increasing to Considerable through the day on solar aspects. Get an early start! Danger is lower, and ski quality better, on shaded and sheltered aspects.
Weather Forecast
Another warm and sunny day is expected today. Freezing levels will rise to 2700m and winds will shift to the west start to increase to moderate in the afternoon. Overnight a frontal system moves into the region bringing increasing cloud and winds. Freezing levels will lower to 1800m and light precipitation is expected for Tues and Wed.
Snowpack Summary
Strong solar and warm temps over the past week has resulted in moist surface snow and crusts on all but sheltered N aspects above 1900m. Shallow ridgetops in the alpine are becoming isothermal. On shaded aspects large surface hoar is growing, right to mountain top. A surface hoar/crust layer in the upper meter is becoming isolated and stubborn.
Avalanche Summary
Several glide cracks released yesterday, resulting in size 2.5-3 avalanches. Solar triggered avalanches started around 11am, on S-W aspects. Avalanches are now gouging deeper into the snowpack as it warms up. Below treeline and in shallow areas the snow is becoming weak with warming and can be skier triggered.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.